I recently stumbled upon Coby Beck's
How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic (not to be confused with World-Changing's in-progress
Universal Climate Change Skeptic Response), and I was floored by the level of attention to detail and thoroughness of research that Beck has done to create his "Layman's Guide" to the anthopogenic global warming debate. Beck is upfront about the fact that, in his words, "INACS (I Am Not a Climate Scientist)," but that he's just a regular guy looking for concise and informed ways to respond to common misconceptions about climate change. Topics Beck addresses include Skeptic catchphrases that we've all heard before, and with the holidays approaching you can all arm yourselves with quick and solid responses to Aunt Sally and Uncle Jerry's more annoying "rebuttals":
"There is no evidence of warming, only model predictions."
"There is no proof that CO2 is what's causing the temperature to go up."
"It was as warm during the Medieval Warm Period as it is today."
"All in all, a warmer climate seems like a good thing."
"Global warming began about 20,000 years ago; humans have nothing to do with it."
and my personal favorite,
"This alleged consensus is just because the scientists are afraid to speak out."
He's got quite a list of topics, some of which are still a work in progress, but what's important about this site is that Beck
isn't a scientist, and his writing is clear, concise, and accessible. The responses are short, with links to sources of data and further information, and the comments section (it's posted on his Blogger blog) have some interesting debates going.
...Which brings me to
theclimateblog . What kind of content would you like to see here? News? Explanations of climatic processes and phenomena? Historical climate events? Politics? Book reviews? Everything? I attended a recent lecture by Bill Cronon, author of
Changes in the Land,
Nature's Metropolis, and other works of environmental history, and he had some interesting things to say about climate change as a "narrative," a story that we tell as a culture and how certain ways of telling that story are more valuable and effective than others. He brought up some scary points about society's collective attention span, and how after a while we stop caring about a story because we know the ending, essentially, and we've heard it all before. I've been struggling with this lately, and trying to think of ways that climate scientists (and journalists, and activists, and everyone else involved in the Climate Change Story) can continute to revitalize the issue so that interest is kept long enough for lasting change to occur. It's incredibly frightening to me to think that it may be inevitable for interest to wane before climate change can become a permanant part of our collective consciousness.
November 1 2006, 00:55:58 UTC 5 years ago
November 1 2006, 03:22:13 UTC 5 years ago
Also, paleoclimate data are being used to compare modern rates and degrees of change to predict vegetation response in particular, including what could happen with different CO2 regimes, temperature, and aridity.
Contrary to what a lot of skeptics will say, the paleoclimate data do NOT support the notion that modern warming is "normal" and part of a long-term cycle. There's a lot of argument about the "overdue glaciation hypothesis," which suggests that we've put off the next ice age, but even if we're in an extended interglacial it's still essentially agreed that we're exceeding the rate of warming at the end of the last ice age, and there's a lot of evidence that suggests that 2005 is the warmest year in the last 400,000 years (to give a sense of comparison). That's pretty contended, though.
That's a lot- is that what you were looking for?
November 2 2006, 14:09:00 UTC 5 years ago
We had an interesting discussion about how scientists have almost been "baited" by the skeptics who have monopolized on the idea of uncertainty by responding with assertions of certainty, when we can never have certainty. Perhaps a move to the European style of the "precautionary principle" would be a better response.
We also talked about how the two things that the Bush administration edits out are issues of certainty and health effects - an indication that maybe we should be stressing the health effects because that may be a way to get through to people - why else are they so threatened by that?
November 2 2006, 14:14:02 UTC 5 years ago
It's true that we can't express certainty, but we can express statistical significance!
November 1 2006, 05:40:05 UTC 5 years ago
All of those sound like they would be used by people that just don't "believe" in it, and haven't done much research into it.
November 1 2006, 13:27:02 UTC 5 years ago
I liked Beck's argument not only as a handy list of quick responses to those arguments, but also because I think it's just a good layperson's guide to understanding the issue. I'm hoping I'll get a climate skpetic reader at some point, so we can all have some good debates in comments!
November 1 2006, 05:51:53 UTC 5 years ago
To quote one of his papers, the Svensmark hypothesis goes as follows:
A correlation between a global average of low cloud cover and the flux of cosmic rays incident in the atmosphere has been observed during the last solar cycle. The ionising potential of Earth bound cosmic rays are modulated by the state of the heliosphere, while clouds play an important role in the Earth’s radiation budget through trapping outgoing- and reflecting incoming radiation. If a physical link between these two features can be established, it would provide a mechanism linking solar activity and Earth’s climate. Recent satellite observations have further revealed a correlation between cosmic ray flux and low cloud top temperature. The temperature of a cloud depends on the radiation properties determined by its’ droplet distribution. Low clouds are warm (273K) and therefore consist of liquid water droplets. At typical tmospheric supersaturations (1%) a liquid cloud drop will only form in the presence of an aerosol, which acts as a condensation site. The roplet distribution of a cloud will then depend on the number of aerosols activated as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the level of supersaturation. Based on observational evidence it is argued that a mechanism to explain the cosmic ray-cloud link might be found through the role of atmospheric ionisation in aerosol production and/or growth. Observations of local aerosol increases in low cloud due to ship exhaust indicate that a small perturbation in atmospheric aerosol can have a major impact on low cloud radiative properties. Thus, a moderate influence on atmospheric aerosol distributions from cosmic ray ionisation would have a strong influence on the Earth’s radiation budget. Historical evidence over the past 1000 years indicates that changes in climate have occurred in accord with variability in cosmic ray intensities. Such changes are in agreement with the sign of cloud radiative forcing associated with cosmic ray variability as estimated from satellite observations.
Why I note of it is because the most recent paper provides experimental data to back up their ideas. http://www.dsri.dk/~hsv/
Possible influence of heliosphere dynamics on prices from Medieval England to modern USA (Pustil’nik & Din, 2005) is pretty interesting in comparing sunspots and cosmic rays against agricultural history.
http://cabtep8.cnea.gov.ar/icrc/icrc200
What do you think?
November 1 2006, 13:22:14 UTC 5 years ago
November 1 2006, 06:13:54 UTC 5 years ago
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November 1 2006, 13:16:14 UTC 5 years ago
November 1 2006, 22:11:32 UTC 5 years ago
Perhaps you can provide a clear discussion here of why computer models are used in paleoclimate and climate change studies. I always make a point of introducing some of these to my students so that they understand their proper role in tying together scattered facts with basic physical relationships.
November 22 2006, 15:52:38 UTC 5 years ago
http://www.newscientisttech.com/art
November 22 2006, 17:31:12 UTC 5 years ago
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